Serie A Women
— Italy
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 10:30 •
Campo Mirko Fersini
Expected Goals
1.56 (league 1.54)
0.81 (league 1.35)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 54.4% | 25.5% | 19.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.5%
1 - 1
11.8%
2 - 0
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Sassuolo W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lazio W | 0 | 9.3% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.5% | 11.8% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Lazio W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 169 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lazio W -9.5, Sassuolo W -35.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Lazio W
vs
Sassuolo W
Elo gapLazio W +169
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo2971.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2971.6
Elo home share
73%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Lazio W | Sassuolo W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1553 | 1418.6 |
| Form Elo | 1551.8 | 1397.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1513.2 | 1471.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1589.7 | 1434.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1537.7 | 1398.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -9.5 | -35.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lazio W last-5 Elo change: -9.5; Sassuolo W last-5 Elo change: -35.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lazio W | Sassuolo W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 7% |
| Attack | 30% | 15% |
| Defense | 55% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lazio W | Sassuolo W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| Wins | 44% | 44% | 44% | 22% | 11% | 17% |
| Draws | 22% | 11% | 17% | 11% | 33% | 22% |
| Loses | 33% | 44% | 39% | 67% | 56% | 61% |
Lazio WWWLLWLLWWLWDWDDWLL
Sassuolo WDLWLDLDLWLLLWLLLDL
League goals
| Metric | Lazio W | Sassuolo W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 14 | 25 | 3 | 10 | 13 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 9 | 15 | 24 | 12 | 18 | 30 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lazio W | Sassuolo W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 72% | 56% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 33% | 17% | 61% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 11% | 0% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 11% | 0% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lazio W | Sassuolo W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lazio W | Sassuolo W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lazio W | Sassuolo W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-2 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lazio W | Sassuolo W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 83% | 17% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 68% | 32% |
| Total | 70.0% | 30.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Lazio W
vs
Sassuolo W
Expected goals
1.56
Lazio W xG
League Avg: 1.54
Total
2.37
0.81
Sassuolo W xG
League Avg: 1.35
1x2 probabilities
Home
54.4%
Draw
25.5%
Away
19.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
14.5%
Tip
1 - 1
11.8%
Tip
2 - 0
11.3%
More chances
1.5+
74%
Chance
2.5+
52%
Chance
3.5+
37%
Chance
BTTS
69%
Chance
🟨 Cards
1 - 2
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Lazio W = 1.56 (league 1.54), Sassuolo W = 0.81 (league 1.35)
| Sassuolo W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lazio W | 0 | 9.3% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.5% | 11.8% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 54.4% · Draw 25.5% · Away win 19.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1