Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 •
Chai Nat Provincial Stadium
Expected Goals
1.09 (league 1.62)
0.63 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.3% | 32.5% | 21.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
19.5%
0 - 0
18.0%
1 - 1
12.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Esan Pattaya | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chainat | 0 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.6% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Chainat carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 55 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Chainat +4.4, Esan Pattaya +33.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Chainat
vs
Esan Pattaya
Elo gapChainat +55
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2923.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2923.7
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Chainat | Esan Pattaya |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1471.9 | 1451.8 |
| Form Elo | 1461.6 | 1469.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1505.2 | 1468.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1486.9 | 1435.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1467.9 | 1484.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.4 | +33.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Chainat last-5 Elo change: +4.4; Esan Pattaya last-5 Elo change: +33.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Chainat | Esan Pattaya |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 60% |
| Attack | 47% | 65% |
| Defense | 47% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Chainat | Esan Pattaya | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 50% | 24% | 36% | 41% | 13% | 27% |
| Draws | 25% | 35% | 30% | 29% | 44% | 36% |
| Loses | 25% | 41% | 33% | 29% | 44% | 36% |
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Esan PattayaDDWDLDWLDLDLWWLLLDLWLWLLDWDLWDWDD
League goals
| Metric | Chainat | Esan Pattaya | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 23 | 49 | 33 | 10 | 43 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 19 | 25 | 44 | 23 | 18 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Chainat | Esan Pattaya | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 79% | 70% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 33% | 39% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 18% | 15% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Chainat | Esan Pattaya | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Chainat | Esan Pattaya |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 85.71% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 1 | 14.29% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Chainat | Esan Pattaya |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 2-0 | 1-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Chainat | Esan Pattaya |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 64% | 36% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 31% | 69% |
| Total | 40.3% | 59.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Chainat
vs
Esan Pattaya
Expected goals
1.09
Chainat xG
League Avg: 1.62
Total
1.72
0.63
Esan Pattaya xG
League Avg: 1.14
1x2 probabilities
Home
46.3%
Draw
32.5%
Away
21.1%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
19.5%
Tip
0 - 0
18.0%
Tip
1 - 1
12.3%
More chances
1.5+
70%
Chance
2.5+
49%
Chance
3.5+
35%
Chance
BTTS
69%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Chainat = 1.09 (league 1.62), Esan Pattaya = 0.63 (league 1.14)
| Esan Pattaya | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chainat | 0 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.6% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 46.3% · Draw 32.5% · Away win 21.1%
vtt 1 , vtd1