Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 23:00 •
Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro
Expected Goals
1.79 (league 1.01)
0.65 (league 0.75)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 63.8% | 22.2% | 12.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.6%
2 - 0
14.0%
1 - 1
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Banfield | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atletico Tucuman | 0 | 8.7% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.6% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.3% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Banfield carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 20 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atletico Tucuman -5.6, Banfield -5.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Atletico Tucuman
vs
Banfield
Elo gapBanfield +20
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2952.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2952.4
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1448.5 | 1503.9 |
| Form Elo | 1438.8 | 1495.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1516.3 | 1457 |
| Attack Elo | 1480.4 | 1481.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1484.6 | 1537.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.6 | -5.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Atletico Tucuman last-5 Elo change: -5.6; Banfield last-5 Elo change: -5.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 27% |
| Attack | 30% | 40% |
| Defense | 50% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
62%
FT probability
2.5+
44%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman | Banfield | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Wins | 29% | 0% | 14% | 50% | 0% | 29% |
| Draws | 57% | 0% | 29% | 25% | 0% | 14% |
| Loses | 14% | 100% | 57% | 25% | 100% | 57% |
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BanfieldDLWLLWLWLLWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman | Banfield | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 14 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 5 | 14 | 19 | 6 | 11 | 17 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Atletico Tucuman | Banfield | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 71% | 64% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 7% | 50% | 29% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 14% | 7% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman | Banfield | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | — | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 74% | 26% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 50.8% | 49.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Atletico Tucuman
vs
Banfield
Expected goals
1.79
Atletico Tucuman xG
League Avg: 1.01
Total
2.44
0.65
Banfield xG
League Avg: 0.75
1x2 probabilities
Home
63.8%
Draw
22.2%
Away
12.9%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
15.6%
Tip
2 - 0
14.0%
Tip
1 - 1
10.1%
More chances
1.5+
62%
Chance
2.5+
44%
Chance
3.5+
31%
Chance
BTTS
62%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 5
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Atletico Tucuman = 1.79 (league 1.01), Banfield = 0.65 (league 0.75)
| Banfield | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atletico Tucuman | 0 | 8.7% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.6% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.3% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.8% · Draw 22.2% · Away win 12.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1