Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 20:00 •
Estadio General Jose Antonio Paez
Expected Goals
2.83 (league 1.08)
2.17 (league 0.92)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.9% | 17.6% | 27.5% |
best score tips
2 - 2
6.3%
3 - 2
6.0%
2 - 1
5.9%
Score & goals probability table
| UCV | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Portuguesa FC | 0 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 2.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 2.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
UCV carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 96 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Portuguesa FC +15.0, UCV -10.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Portuguesa FC
vs
UCV
Elo gapUCV +96
Home / draw / away30% / 19% / 51%
Expected home share37%
Combined Elo3063.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3063.1
Elo home share
37%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Portuguesa FC | UCV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1466.2 | 1596.9 |
| Form Elo | 1485 | 1597.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1492.4 | 1573 |
| Attack Elo | 1478.7 | 1673 |
| Defense Elo | 1474.3 | 1513.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +15.0 | -10.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Portuguesa FC last-5 Elo change: +15.0; UCV last-5 Elo change: -10.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Portuguesa FC | UCV |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 27% |
| Attack | 41% | 35% |
| Defense | 82% | 35% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
90%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Portuguesa FC | UCV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Wins | 50% | 17% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 58% |
| Draws | 33% | 50% | 42% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| Loses | 17% | 33% | 25% | 17% | 33% | 25% |
Portuguesa FCDWLDWLDWDLWD
UCVWWWWWWDLLWLD
League goals
| Metric | Portuguesa FC | UCV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 7 | 17 | 9 | 15 | 24 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 5 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 17 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Portuguesa FC | UCV | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 50% | 83% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 33% | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 17% | 33% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 0% | 8% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Portuguesa FC | UCV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Portuguesa FC | UCV |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Portuguesa FC | UCV |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-2 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Portuguesa FC | UCV |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 79% | 21% |
| Poisson Distribution | 55% | 45% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 31% | 69% |
| Total | 50.2% | 49.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Portuguesa FC
vs
UCV
Expected goals
2.83
Portuguesa FC xG
League Avg: 1.08
Total
5.00
2.17
UCV xG
League Avg: 0.92
1x2 probabilities
Home
45.9%
Draw
17.6%
Away
27.5%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 2
6.3%
Tip
3 - 2
6.0%
Tip
2 - 1
5.9%
More chances
1.5+
90%
Chance
2.5+
63%
Chance
3.5+
45%
Chance
BTTS
72%
Chance
🟨 Cards
3 - 6
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Portuguesa FC = 2.83 (league 1.08), UCV = 2.17 (league 0.92)
| UCV | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Portuguesa FC | 0 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 2.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 2.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 45.9% · Draw 17.6% · Away win 27.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1