Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.99 (league 1.36)
0.64 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 67.6% | 19.8% | 11.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.3%
2 - 0
14.2%
3 - 0
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Sarmiento Res. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atl. Rafaela 2 | 0 | 7.2% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.3% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.4% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Atl. Rafaela 2 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 50 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atl. Rafaela 2 -38.3, Sarmiento Res. -4.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Atl. Rafaela 2
vs
Sarmiento Res.
Elo gapAtl. Rafaela 2 +50
Home / draw / away43% / 24% / 33%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo2903.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2903.1
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Atl. Rafaela 2 | Sarmiento Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1459.2 | 1443.9 |
| Form Elo | 1438.1 | 1437.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.3 | 1483.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1515 | 1394.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1468.7 | 1497.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -38.3 | -4.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Atl. Rafaela 2 last-5 Elo change: -38.3; Sarmiento Res. last-5 Elo change: -4.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Atl. Rafaela 2 | Sarmiento Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 33% |
| Attack | 45% | 36% |
| Defense | 9% | 45% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Atl. Rafaela 2 | Sarmiento Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 22% | 20% | 25% | 22% |
| Draws | 25% | 0% | 11% | 40% | 25% | 33% |
| Loses | 25% | 100% | 67% | 40% | 50% | 44% |
Atl. Rafaela 2LWLWLLLLD
Sarmiento Res.DWLLWLLDD
League goals
| Metric | Atl. Rafaela 2 | Sarmiento Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 3 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Atl. Rafaela 2 | Sarmiento Res. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 89% | 56% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 33% | 0% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Atl. Rafaela 2 | Sarmiento Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Atl. Rafaela 2 | Sarmiento Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Atl. Rafaela 2 | Sarmiento Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | — | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Atl. Rafaela 2 | Sarmiento Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 17% | 83% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 75% | 25% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 46.5% | 53.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Atl. Rafaela 2
vs
Sarmiento Res.
Expected goals
1.99
Atl. Rafaela 2 xG
League Avg: 1.36
Total
2.63
0.64
Sarmiento Res. xG
League Avg: 1.00
1x2 probabilities
Home
67.6%
Draw
19.8%
Away
11.0%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
14.3%
Tip
2 - 0
14.2%
Tip
3 - 0
9.4%
More chances
1.5+
71%
Chance
2.5+
50%
Chance
3.5+
36%
Chance
BTTS
70%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Atl. Rafaela 2 = 1.99 (league 1.36), Sarmiento Res. = 0.64 (league 1.00)
| Sarmiento Res. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atl. Rafaela 2 | 0 | 7.2% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.3% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.4% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 67.6% · Draw 19.8% · Away win 11.0%
vtt 1 , vtd1