Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.88 (league 1.36)
1.04 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.0% | 31.4% | 38.5% |
best score tips
0 - 1
15.2%
0 - 0
14.6%
1 - 1
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Vélez Sársfield Res. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ferro 2 | 0 | 14.6% | 15.2% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.9% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Vélez Sársfield Res. carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 100 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ferro 2 +3.3, Vélez Sársfield Res. +25.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Ferro 2
vs
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Elo gapVélez Sársfield Res. +100
Home / draw / away29% / 19% / 52%
Expected home share36%
Combined Elo3053.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3053.3
Elo home share
36%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Vélez Sársfield Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1459.1 | 1594.2 |
| Form Elo | 1457.1 | 1618.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1511.1 | 1523.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1457.5 | 1610.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1435.6 | 1605.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.3 | +25.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Ferro 2 last-5 Elo change: +3.3; Vélez Sársfield Res. last-5 Elo change: +25.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Vélez Sársfield Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 100% |
| Attack | 75% | 100% |
| Defense | 25% | 88% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 14 | 2.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 1 | 0.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Vélez Sársfield Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 50% | 20% | 33% | 100% | 50% | 78% |
| Draws | 25% | 20% | 22% | 0% | 25% | 11% |
| Loses | 25% | 60% | 44% | 0% | 25% | 11% |
Ferro 2LWLDLWWLD
Vélez Sársfield Res.WDWLWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Vélez Sársfield Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 21 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| GA total | 3 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ferro 2 | Vélez Sársfield Res. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 67% | 89% | 44% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 44% | 78% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 11% | 44% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 11% | 22% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Vélez Sársfield Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Vélez Sársfield Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Vélez Sársfield Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-1 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | — | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Vélez Sársfield Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 32% | 68% |
| Att | 30% | 70% |
| Def | 14% | 86% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 36.7% | 63.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Ferro 2
vs
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Expected goals
0.88
Ferro 2 xG
League Avg: 1.36
Total
1.93
1.04
Vélez Sársfield Res. xG
League Avg: 1.00
1x2 probabilities
Home
30.0%
Draw
31.4%
Away
38.5%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
15.2%
Tip
0 - 0
14.6%
Tip
1 - 1
13.4%
More chances
1.5+
69%
Chance
2.5+
48%
Chance
3.5+
34%
Chance
BTTS
58%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Ferro 2 = 0.88 (league 1.36), Vélez Sársfield Res. = 1.04 (league 1.00)
| Vélez Sársfield Res. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ferro 2 | 0 | 14.6% | 15.2% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.9% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.0% · Draw 31.4% · Away win 38.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1