Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 16:00 •
Skonto stadions
Expected Goals
4.42 (league 1.59)
0.93 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 62.9% | 5.6% | 3.1% |
best score tips
4 - 0
7.5%
4 - 1
7.0%
3 - 0
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Ogre United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Riga | 0 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.7% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Riga carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 222 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Riga +18.5, Ogre United -50.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Riga
vs
Ogre United
Elo gapRiga +222
Home / draw / away64% / 18% / 18%
Expected home share78%
Combined Elo3278.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3278.4
Elo home share
78%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Riga | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1732.6 | 1545.8 |
| Form Elo | 1741.1 | 1505.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1591.4 | 1508.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1965.1 | 1656.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1664.5 | 1602.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +18.5 | -50.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Riga last-5 Elo change: +18.5; Ogre United last-5 Elo change: -50.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Riga | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 13% |
| Attack | 100% | 29% |
| Defense | 64% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 20 | 4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
78%
FT probability
3.5+
55%
FT probability
BTTS
85%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Riga | Ogre United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Wins | 50% | 80% | 71% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 14% | 60% | 0% | 43% |
| Loses | 0% | 20% | 14% | 40% | 100% | 57% |
RigaLWWWDWW
Ogre UnitedLDLLLDD
League goals
| Metric | Riga | Ogre United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 18 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| GF avg | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 5 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| GA avg | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Riga | Ogre United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 71% | 71% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 86% | 43% | 0% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 14% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Riga | Ogre United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Riga | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Riga | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 0-8 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Riga | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 87% | 13% |
| Att | 83% | 17% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 88% | 12% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 79.0% | 21.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.05 @ William Hill
Draw17.00 @ Bet365
Away67.00 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.29 @ Unibet
Under 2.54.10 @ BetVictor
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes4.55 @ 1xBet
No1.42 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Riga
vs
Ogre United
Expected goals
4.42
Riga xG
League Avg: 1.59
Total
5.35
0.93
Ogre United xG
League Avg: 1.34
1x2 probabilities
Home
62.9%
Draw
5.6%
Away
3.1%
Best score tips
Tip
4 - 0
7.5%
Tip
4 - 1
7.0%
Tip
3 - 0
6.8%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
78%
Chance
3.5+
55%
Chance
BTTS
85%
Chance
🟨 Cards
1 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Riga = 4.42 (league 1.59), Ogre United = 0.93 (league 1.34)
| Ogre United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Riga | 0 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.7% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 62.9% · Draw 5.6% · Away win 3.1%
vtt 1 , vtd1