Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
3.18 (league 1.89)
1.92 (league 1.49)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 52.8% | 15.7% | 20.0% |
best score tips
3 - 1
6.3%
3 - 2
6.0%
2 - 1
5.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Aksakovo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Olympic Varna | 0 | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 3.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 3.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 2.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Olympic Varna carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 83 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Olympic Varna -3.3, Aksakovo -2.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Olympic Varna
vs
Aksakovo
Elo gapOlympic Varna +83
Home / draw / away49% / 21% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo2901.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2901.5
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Olympic Varna | Aksakovo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1474.7 | 1426.8 |
| Form Elo | 1474.3 | 1423.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1485.9 | 1473 |
| Attack Elo | 1579.2 | 1500.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1311.8 | 1346.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.3 | -2.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Olympic Varna last-5 Elo change: -3.3; Aksakovo last-5 Elo change: -2.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Olympic Varna | Aksakovo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 40% |
| Attack | 53% | 47% |
| Defense | 0% | 35% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 18 | 3.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
83%
FT probability
3.5+
59%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Olympic Varna | Aksakovo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 12 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 38% | 25% | 32% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Draws | 15% | 33% | 24% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| Loses | 46% | 42% | 44% | 67% | 67% | 67% |
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League goals
| Metric | Olympic Varna | Aksakovo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 32 | 17 | 49 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 29 | 33 | 62 | 28 | 29 | 57 |
| GA avg | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Olympic Varna | Aksakovo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 84% | 67% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 52% | 64% | 46% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 40% | 8% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 28% | 0% | 29% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 12% | 0% | 8% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Olympic Varna | Aksakovo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Olympic Varna | Aksakovo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Olympic Varna | Aksakovo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 11-0 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 2-7 | 8-0 | 0-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 7 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Olympic Varna | Aksakovo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 45% | 55% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 49.2% | 50.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Olympic Varna
vs
Aksakovo
Expected goals
3.18
Olympic Varna xG
League Avg: 1.89
Total
5.10
1.92
Aksakovo xG
League Avg: 1.49
1x2 probabilities
Home
52.8%
Draw
15.7%
Away
20.0%
Best score tips
Tip
3 - 1
6.3%
Tip
3 - 2
6.0%
Tip
2 - 1
5.9%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
83%
Chance
3.5+
59%
Chance
BTTS
80%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Olympic Varna = 3.18 (league 1.89), Aksakovo = 1.92 (league 1.49)
| Aksakovo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Olympic Varna | 0 | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 3.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 3.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 2.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.8% · Draw 15.7% · Away win 20.0%
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