Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 20:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.90 (league 1.58)
0.82 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 61.5% | 21.6% | 15.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
12.5%
2 - 0
11.9%
1 - 1
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| General Velásquez | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lota Schwager | 0 | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.9% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Lota Schwager carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 43 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lota Schwager -0.2, General Velásquez -12.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Lota Schwager
vs
General Velásquez
Elo gapLota Schwager +43
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo2991.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2991.7
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Lota Schwager | General Velásquez |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1499.8 | 1491.9 |
| Form Elo | 1498.9 | 1480 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1500 | 1475.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1498.5 | 1465.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1501.4 | 1459.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -0.2 | -12.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Lota Schwager last-5 Elo change: -0.2; General Velásquez last-5 Elo change: -12.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lota Schwager | General Velásquez |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 1 | 3 |
| Form | 33% | 33% |
| Attack | 6% | 19% |
| Defense | 94% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
55%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lota Schwager | General Velásquez | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | — | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Draws | — | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | — | 0% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
Lota SchwagerD
General VelásquezLLW
League goals
| Metric | Lota Schwager | General Velásquez | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lota Schwager | General Velásquez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lota Schwager | General Velásquez | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lota Schwager | General Velásquez |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lota Schwager | General Velásquez |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 3-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lota Schwager | General Velásquez |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 83% | 17% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 44.3% | 55.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Lota Schwager
vs
General Velásquez
Expected goals
1.90
Lota Schwager xG
League Avg: 1.58
Total
2.72
0.82
General Velásquez xG
League Avg: 1.22
1x2 probabilities
Home
61.5%
Draw
21.6%
Away
15.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
12.5%
Tip
2 - 0
11.9%
Tip
1 - 1
10.3%
More chances
1.5+
55%
Chance
2.5+
39%
Chance
3.5+
28%
Chance
BTTS
67%
Chance
🟨 Cards
3 - 6
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Lota Schwager = 1.90 (league 1.58), General Velásquez = 0.82 (league 1.22)
| General Velásquez | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lota Schwager | 0 | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.9% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 61.5% · Draw 21.6% · Away win 15.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1