Expected Goals
1.32 (league 1.73)
0.64 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 52.8% | 28.7% | 18.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.5%
0 - 0
14.0%
2 - 0
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Hrvatski Dragovoljac | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Varteks Varaždin | 0 | 14.0% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.2% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Varteks Varaždin carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 87 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Varteks Varaždin -13.5, Hrvatski Dragovoljac +47.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Varteks Varaždin
vs
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Elo gapVarteks Varaždin +87
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo2943.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2943.6
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Varteks Varaždin | Hrvatski Dragovoljac |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1497.6 | 1446 |
| Form Elo | 1477.7 | 1469.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1526.4 | 1463.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1526.9 | 1485.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1482.9 | 1438.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.5 | +47.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Varteks Varaždin last-5 Elo change: -13.5; Hrvatski Dragovoljac last-5 Elo change: +47.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Varteks Varaždin | Hrvatski Dragovoljac |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 60% |
| Attack | 38% | 92% |
| Defense | 31% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Varteks Varaždin | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 33% | 25% | 29% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| Draws | 25% | 17% | 21% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Loses | 42% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Varteks VaraždinWLLDWWWLLWLWLLDLLLDDDLLW
Hrvatski DragovoljacLLDDDLLWLLLLLDDLLLWDDDWW
League goals
| Metric | Varteks Varaždin | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 14 | 28 | 16 | 8 | 24 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 13 | 28 | 41 | 18 | 23 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Varteks Varaždin | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 79% | 58% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 58% | 21% | 54% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 29% | 8% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Varteks Varaždin | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Varteks Varaždin | Hrvatski Dragovoljac |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Varteks Varaždin | Hrvatski Dragovoljac |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 6-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Varteks Varaždin | Hrvatski Dragovoljac |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 49.2% | 50.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Varteks Varaždin
vs
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Expected goals
1.32
Varteks Varaždin xG
League Avg: 1.73
Total
1.96
0.64
Hrvatski Dragovoljac xG
League Avg: 1.20
1x2 probabilities
Home
52.8%
Draw
28.7%
Away
18.2%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
18.5%
Tip
0 - 0
14.0%
Tip
2 - 0
12.2%
More chances
1.5+
75%
Chance
2.5+
53%
Chance
3.5+
38%
Chance
BTTS
64%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Varteks Varaždin = 1.32 (league 1.73), Hrvatski Dragovoljac = 0.64 (league 1.20)
| Hrvatski Dragovoljac | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Varteks Varaždin | 0 | 14.0% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.2% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.8% · Draw 28.7% · Away win 18.2%
vtt 1 , vtd1