Stars League — Qatar
Mon, Dec 29 2025 • 16:30 • Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.94 (league 1.63) 3.26 (league 1.54)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
29.7% 15.9% 36.2%
best score tips
2 - 3
5.1%
3 - 3
5.0%
2 - 2
4.6%
Score & goals probability table
UMM Salal
0 1 2 3 4 5
Al Ahli Doha 0 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6%
1 0.6% 1.9% 3.2% 3.4% 2.8% 1.8%
2 0.9% 2.8% 4.6% 5.1% 4.1% 2.7%
3 0.9% 2.8% 4.6% 5.0% 4.0% 2.6%
4 0.6% 2.1% 3.4% 3.6% 3.0% 1.9%
5 0.4% 1.2% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAl Ahli DohaUMM Salal
Played55
Form60%0%
Attack73%64%
Defense27%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.620 | 4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

63%
FT probability

BTTS

86%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Al Ahli Doha UMM Salal
HATHAT
Played46105510
Wins25%50%40%40%0%20%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses75%50%60%60%100%80%

Form: Al Ahli Doha: LLLWLWLWLW • UMM Salal: LWLLWLLLLL

League goals

Metric Al Ahli Doha UMM Salal
HATHAT
GF total67138917
GF avg1.51.21.31.61.81.7
GA total11920161632
GA avg2.81.52.03.23.23.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAl Ahli DohaUMM Salal
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%100%90%90%
1.540%70%70%80%
2.520%30%10%60%
3.510%0%0%40%
4.510%0%0%20%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAl Ahli DohaUMM Salal
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score235101

Penalties

MetricAl Ahli DohaUMM Salal
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricAl Ahli DohaUMM Salal
Wins11
Draws00
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-32-32-0—
Biggest losses0-32-03-84-2
Goals For5332
Goals Against3284

Model comparison

MetricAl Ahli DohaUMM Salal
Form100%0%
Att53%47%
Def71%29%
Poisson Distribution47%53%
H2h29%71%
Goals45%55%
Total49.0%51.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Al Ahli Doha or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.95 @ 188Bet
Draw4.29 @ Pinnacle
Away4.21 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.58 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.41 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Bet365
No2.56 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Al Ahli Doha = 2.94 (league 1.63), UMM Salal = 3.26 (league 1.54)

UMM Salal
0 1 2 3 4 5
Al Ahli Doha 0 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6%
1 0.6% 1.9% 3.2% 3.4% 2.8% 1.8%
2 0.9% 2.8% 4.6% 5.1% 4.1% 2.7%
3 0.9% 2.8% 4.6% 5.0% 4.0% 2.6%
4 0.6% 2.1% 3.4% 3.6% 3.0% 1.9%
5 0.4% 1.2% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.7% · Draw 15.9% · Away win 36.2%

Vtot 10 , Vtod1