Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 15:30 • Tony Bezzina Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.55 (league 1.23) 0.65 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
58.8% 25.3% 15.4%
best score tips
1 - 0
17.2%
2 - 0
13.4%
1 - 1
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
Birkirkara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marsaxlokk 0 11.1% 7.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 17.2% 11.1% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
2 13.4% 8.7% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 6.9% 4.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
Played55
Form33%0%
Attack60%20%
Defense40%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.22 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.214 | 2.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

56%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marsaxlokk Birkirkara
HATHAT
Played691541115
Wins50%33%40%50%18%27%
Draws17%33%27%25%27%27%
Loses33%33%33%25%55%47%

Form: Marsaxlokk: WWLWLLDWDWDLWLD • Birkirkara: DDLDWWDWLWLLLLL

League goals

Metric Marsaxlokk Birkirkara
HATHAT
GF total7111831114
GF avg1.21.21.20.81.00.9
GA total5101521820
GA avg0.81.11.00.51.61.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%60%53%53%
1.533%33%27%53%
2.513%7%7%7%
3.50%0%7%7%
4.50%0%0%7%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
HATHAT
Clean sheets336347
Failed to score224257

Penalties

MetricMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
Wins22
Draws12
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-32-00-4
Biggest losses0-23-10-26-1
Goals For3324
Goals Against2326

Model comparison

MetricMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
Form100%0%
Att75%25%
Def70%30%
Poisson Distribution67%33%
H2h36%64%
Goals33%67%
Total56.2%43.8%

Advice: Double chance : Marsaxlokk or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.50 @ Unibet
Draw3.20 @ Betano
Away3.14 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.50 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.62 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ Unibet
No1.83 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Marsaxlokk = 1.55 (league 1.23), Birkirkara = 0.65 (league 1.23)

Birkirkara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marsaxlokk 0 11.1% 7.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 17.2% 11.1% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
2 13.4% 8.7% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 6.9% 4.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 58.8% · Draw 25.3% · Away win 15.4%

vtt 1 , vtd1