Sun, Apr 19 2026 • 21:10 •
Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
Expected Goals
0.88 (league 1.12)
1.47 (league 0.80)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5% | 26.5% | 50.5% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.1%
1 - 1
12.4%
0 - 2
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Independiente Medellin | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Alianza Valledupar | 0 | 9.6% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Alianza Valledupar | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 47% |
| Attack | 31% | 50% |
| Defense | 69% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
67%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Alianza Valledupar | Independiente Medellin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 9 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 15 |
| Wins | 29% | 11% | 19% | 29% | 25% | 27% |
| Draws | 57% | 22% | 38% | 29% | 38% | 33% |
| Loses | 14% | 67% | 44% | 43% | 38% | 40% |
Form: Alianza Valledupar: LLDLDDLLDDWWLDWL • Independiente Medellin: LLDDLWDDLWWLWDL
League goals
| Metric | Alianza Valledupar | Independiente Medellin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| GF avg | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 6 | 18 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Alianza Valledupar | Independiente Medellin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 81% | 87% | 87% |
| 1.5 | 6% | 38% | 47% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 19% | 7% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Alianza Valledupar | Independiente Medellin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Alianza Valledupar | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Alianza Valledupar | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 2-3 | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-0 | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Alianza Valledupar | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 45% | 55% |
| Total | 44.5% | 55.5% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or Independiente Medellin
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.40 @ Bet365
Draw3.25 @ Unibet
Away2.35 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.30 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.71 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.91 @ 10Bet
No1.93 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Alianza Valledupar
vs
Independiente Medellin
Expected goals
0.88
Alianza Valledupar xG
League Avg: 1.12
Total
2.34
1.47
Independiente Medellin xG
League Avg: 0.80
1x2 probabilities
Home
22.5%
Draw
26.5%
Away
50.5%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
14.1%
Tip
1 - 1
12.4%
Tip
0 - 2
10.3%
More chances
1.5+
67%
Chance
2.5+
47%
Chance
3.5+
34%
Chance
BTTS
70%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 5
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Alianza Valledupar = 0.88 (league 1.12), Independiente Medellin = 1.47 (league 0.80)
| Independiente Medellin | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Alianza Valledupar | 0 | 9.6% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.5% · Draw 26.5% · Away win 50.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1