BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava

Virsliga — Latvia

Thu, Apr 16 2026 • 15:00 • Stadions Celtnieks

Match Finished

BFC Daugavpils

1 - 0

FS Jelgava

Expected Goals

0.82 (league 1.59) 0.53 (league 1.33)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
39.6%	38.5%	21.8%

best score tips

0 - 0

26.0%

1 - 0

21.3%

0 - 1

13.7%

Score & goals probability table

		FS Jelgava
		0	1	2	3	4	5
BFC Daugavpils	0	26.0%	13.7%	3.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
	1	21.3%	11.3%	3.0%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
	2	8.7%	4.6%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	3	2.4%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	4	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	BFC Daugavpils	FS Jelgava
Played	5	5
Form	60%	13%
Attack	59%	12%
Defense	35%	29%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	10 \| 2	2 \| 0.4
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	11 \| 2.2	12 \| 2.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%

FT probability

2.5+

53%

FT probability

3.5+

38%

FT probability

BTTS

76%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	BFC Daugavpils			FS Jelgava
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	3	3	6	4	2	6
Wins	67%	33%	50%	25%	0%	17%
Draws	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	33%
Loses	33%	67%	50%	75%	0%	50%

Form: BFC Daugavpils: LLLWWW • FS Jelgava: WDLLLD

League goals

Metric	BFC Daugavpils			FS Jelgava
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	4	6	10	2	2	4
GF avg	1.3	2.0	1.7	0.5	1.0	0.7
GA total	2	10	12	11	2	13
GA avg	0.7	3.3	2.0	2.8	1.0	2.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	BFC Daugavpils		FS Jelgava
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	83%	83%	50%	100%
1.5	67%	50%	17%	17%
2.5	17%	33%	0%	17%
3.5	0%	33%	0%	17%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	17%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	BFC Daugavpils			FS Jelgava
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	1	0	1	0	0	0
Failed to score	1	0	1	3	0	3

Penalties

Metric	BFC Daugavpils	FS Jelgava
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	BFC Daugavpils	FS Jelgava
Wins	0	1
Draws	0	1
Losses	3	3

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	2-0	2-3	2-1	—
Biggest losses	0-1	4-1	0-8	—
Goals For	2	3	2	1
Goals Against	1	4	8	1

Model comparison

Metric	BFC Daugavpils	FS Jelgava
Form	82%	18%
Att	83%	17%
Def	52%	48%
Poisson Distribution	73%	27%
H2h	62%	38%
Goals	50%	50%
Total	67.0%	33.0%

Advice: Double chance : BFC Daugavpils or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.20 @ Unibet

Draw3.54 @ Pinnacle

Away3.25 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.85 @ Dafabet

Under 2.52.03 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.70 @ William Hill

No2.20 @ Betfair

📊

League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava

footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

BFC Daugavpils

FS Jelgava

Virsliga • Latvia • Thu, Apr 16 2026 • 15:00 • Stadions Celtnieks

Expected goals

0.82

BFC Daugavpils xG League Avg: 1.59

Total

1.35

0.53

FS Jelgava xG League Avg: 1.33

1x2 probabilities

Home

39.6%

Draw

38.5%

Away

21.8%

Best score tips

Tip

0 - 0

26.0%

Tip

1 - 0

21.3%

Tip

0 - 1

13.7%

More chances

1.5+

76%

Chance

2.5+

53%

Chance

3.5+

38%

Chance

BTTS

76%

Chance

🟨 Cards

2 - 4

Exp.

#BfcDaugavpils #FsJelgava #Virsliga #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): BFC Daugavpils = 0.82 (league 1.59), FS Jelgava = 0.53 (league 1.32)

		FS Jelgava
		0	1	2	3	4	5
BFC Daugavpils	0	26.0%	13.7%	3.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
	1	21.3%	11.3%	3.0%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
	2	8.7%	4.6%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	3	2.4%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	4	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.5% · Draw 38.5% · Away win 22.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1

Metric	BFC Daugavpils	FS Jelgava
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0