Thu, Apr 9 2026 • 13:00 •
Bombo Stadium
Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.34)
0.95 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.3% | 32.4% | 35.2% |
best score tips
0 - 0
15.8%
0 - 1
15.0%
1 - 0
14.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Mbarara City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| UPDF | 0 | 15.7% | 15.0% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.1% | 13.4% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | UPDF | Mbarara City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 7% |
| Attack | 20% | 10% |
| Defense | 50% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
62%
FT probability
2.5+
44%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | UPDF | Mbarara City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 21 |
| Wins | 10% | 18% | 14% | 20% | 9% | 14% |
| Draws | 30% | 18% | 24% | 30% | 36% | 33% |
| Loses | 60% | 64% | 62% | 50% | 55% | 52% |
Form: UPDF: LWLLLWLLWDDLLLLDLLDLD • Mbarara City: DLDLLLWLDDWLDLDWLLLLD
League goals
| Metric | UPDF | Mbarara City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| GF avg | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 10 | 19 | 29 | 9 | 22 | 31 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | UPDF | Mbarara City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 52% | 71% | 62% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 14% | 38% | 10% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 14% | 0% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | UPDF | Mbarara City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | UPDF | Mbarara City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | UPDF | Mbarara City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 5-1 | 1-2 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | UPDF | Mbarara City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 65.3% | 34.7% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : UPDF or draw and -3.5 goals
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.67 @ William Hill
Draw3.50 @ Unibet
Away5.87 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.40 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.65 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.40 @ Betfair
No1.62 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
UPDF
vs
Mbarara City
Expected goals
0.90
UPDF xG
League Avg: 1.34
Total
1.84
0.95
Mbarara City xG
League Avg: 0.84
1x2 probabilities
Home
32.3%
Draw
32.4%
Away
35.2%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
15.8%
Tip
0 - 1
15.0%
Tip
1 - 0
14.2%
More chances
1.5+
62%
Chance
2.5+
44%
Chance
3.5+
31%
Chance
BTTS
63%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): UPDF = 0.90 (league 1.34), Mbarara City = 0.95 (league 0.84)
| Mbarara City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| UPDF | 0 | 15.7% | 15.0% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.1% | 13.4% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.3% · Draw 32.3% · Away win 35.3%
vtt 1 , vtd1