Thu, Apr 16 2026 • 01:00 •
Dignity Health Sports Park
Expected Goals
2.56 (league 1.76)
2.05 (league 0.98)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.3% | 18.6% | 29.7% |
best score tips
2 - 2
6.8%
2 - 1
6.7%
3 - 2
5.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Toluca | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 0 | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 2.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Los Angeles Galaxy | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 3 |
| Form | 53% | 67% |
| Attack | 64% | 71% |
| Defense | 64% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 10 | 3.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
72%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Los Angeles Galaxy | Toluca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 50% | 33% | 40% | 100% | 0% | 67% |
| Draws | 50% | 33% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 20% | 0% | 100% | 33% |
Form: Los Angeles Galaxy: DDWWL • Toluca: LWW
League goals
| Metric | Los Angeles Galaxy | Toluca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 3.3 |
| GA total | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Los Angeles Galaxy | Toluca | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 40% | 100% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 20% | 100% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 20% | 67% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Los Angeles Galaxy | Toluca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Los Angeles Galaxy | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Los Angeles Galaxy | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 4-2 | — | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Los Angeles Galaxy | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or Toluca
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.80 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.75 @ 10Bet
Away2.55 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.64 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.35 @ SBO
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.53 @ 10Bet
No2.50 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Los Angeles Galaxy
vs
Toluca
Expected goals
2.56
Los Angeles Galaxy xG
League Avg: 1.76
Total
4.61
2.05
Toluca xG
League Avg: 0.98
1x2 probabilities
Home
45.3%
Draw
18.6%
Away
29.7%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 2
6.8%
Tip
2 - 1
6.7%
Tip
3 - 2
5.9%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
72%
Chance
3.5+
51%
Chance
BTTS
68%
Chance
🟨 Cards
1 - 3
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Los Angeles Galaxy = 2.56 (league 1.76), Toluca = 2.05 (league 0.98)
| Toluca | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 0 | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 2.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 45.3% · Draw 18.6% · Away win 29.7%
vtt 1 , vtd1